What Are the Odds of Rolling a Yahtzee?
Few moments in board gaming are as exciting as rolling a Yahtzee — five of a kind with five dice. It’s the move that gives the game its name, and players often wonder: how likely is it to actually happen?
In this guide, we’ll break down the exact odds of rolling a Yahtzee, from the first roll to the full three-roll turn, and explain how often you can expect to see it in real games. If you’re just learning how the game works, you may want to start with our Yahtzee rules guide before diving into the probabilities.
Created by Adam D Fernsby
The Probability of a Yahtzee on the First Roll
To roll a Yahtzee on your very first try, all five dice must show the same number.
- There are 6 possible Yahtzees (all ones, all twos, etc.)
- There are 6^5 = 7,776 possible outcomes when rolling five dice
- So, the probability is 6 ÷ 7,776 = 1/1,296
That’s a tiny chance of about 0.08% — meaning you’ll only see a first-roll Yahtzee once in 1,296 attempts on average.
The Odds with Two Rolls
Most of the time, players keep matching dice and reroll the rest. This increases the odds significantly.
- After two rolls, the probability of ending with a Yahtzee jumps to about 1 in 129
- That’s roughly 0.8%, ten times more likely than hitting it in a single roll
Still rare, but much more achievable.
The Odds with Three Rolls (One Turn)
By the end of a full Yahtzee turn (up to three rolls), the odds improve even further.
- Probability: 1 in 22 (≈4.6%)
- This means that if you play regularly, you can expect to roll a Yahtzee roughly once every 22 games
This explains why most players see at least a few Yahtzees over many sessions, but multiple in the same game are still special.
Probability Table – Rolling a Yahtzee
| Scenario | Odds | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| First roll | 1 in 1,296 | 0.08% |
| Two rolls | 1 in 129 | 0.8% |
| Full turn (three rolls) | 1 in 22 | 4.6% |
How Often Do Yahtzees Happen in Real Games?
- On average, a Yahtzee shows up once every 22–24 games
- Bonus Yahtzees (additional ones after the first) make high scores possible, but they’re rare
- Two Yahtzees in one game is uncommon but not unheard of
- Three or more Yahtzees in one game is extremely rare, but some players report it happening with lucky streaks
Fun Comparisons
To put the odds in perspective:
- Rolling a Yahtzee in a turn (1 in 22) is more likely than drawing a royal flush in poker (1 in 649,740)
- But it’s less likely than flipping heads 10 times in a row (1 in 1,024)
- This rarity is exactly what makes shouting “Yahtzee!” such a thrill when it happens
Conclusion
Rolling a Yahtzee is rare, but not impossible. The odds of hitting it on the first roll are tiny (1 in 1,296), but rerolls improve your chances to about 1 in 22 per turn. For most players, this means you’ll see a Yahtzee occasionally, and sometimes even more than one in a lucky game.
That balance of probability, luck, and strategy is what makes Yahtzee such an exciting and enduring dice game.
